Although it is insisted in official circles that the economy is recovering, the truth is that with a GDP that will fall 10%, the disappearance of 500,000 companies and the destruction of 5 million jobs in the EAP, the outlook is bleak.
Consumption continues to plummet and, up until July, it accumulates an annual decrease of 11.8%, which shows its effects in the sales reported by the ANTAD [National Association of Self-Service and Departmental Stores], presided by Vicente Yánez, and those of cars and trucks. Furthermore, this blow has not even spared the high purchasing power segment.
In this sense, social and political pressure will grow increasingly as the evidence of the crisis becomes more evident.
We find the labor sector among those who will express their distress. There are already indications of an increased discontent within unions. We have already talked about the threat of a strike faced by VW, a company led by Steffen Reiche. There are also signs of trouble in Interjet, headed by Carlos Cabal and, ASPA [Union Association of Airline Pilots of Mexico], led by Rafael Díaz Covarrubias has shown signs of discontent toward Aeroméxico, headed by Andrés Conesa.
Experts point out that conditions are conductive to an increased number of strikes within the next few months. The 180 degree turn in the law promoted by the STPS [Department of Labor and Social Welfare] headed Luisa María Alcalde, with a Federal Conciliation Center, which will begin operations in full in May and which will demand a greater mobilization among workers, will contribute The signature of the general secretary in any agreement will no longer suffice; the signature of 50% plus one of the members is now required. Expert Oscar de la Vega states that this will put leaderships to the test.
Add the effort of leaders that are seeking to wrest control from many unions from traditional centrals. The case of Napoleón Gómez Urrutia.
A problem is that the concept of strikes is rusty. There are timings provided by law that are exceedingly long and which could further damage the financial health of companies before reaching a solution. De la Vega, himself, points out that it is urgent to make private arbitration more active.
What is a fact is that strikes, so absent in recent years due to official control mechanisms, are back. Inertia is evident.
800-million-peso blow to Multiva due to the bankruptcy of Famsa
We were talking about the banking problem, concealed by the extensions that were granted. The main challenge lies in consumer credit, the SME and mortgage segments. If you take into consideration that 30% of the trillion pesos that were differed is not being paid, even some large banks will have and insufficient capital ratio. The small ones face a bigger challenge due to a lower profitability and many medium ones additionally face the blow dealt by Banco Famsa, headed by Humberto Garza. The one at greatest risk is Banco Multiva, headed by Olegario Vázquez Aldir. 800 million pesos have been committed, which are the third of the capital of this institution. Recovering that amount appears to be highly complicated. Monex, headed by Héctor Lagos and Intercam, headed by Eduardo García Lecuona were also negatively affected.
Expo ANTAD, business agreements for 8,000 million pesos
Expo ANTAD continued yesterday, October 20, in a digital format for the first time ever, due to the pandemic. It ends on Friday, with the presence of 650 speakers and 40 experts, before an audience of 3,000 interested parties, three times larger than in the in-person meetings in Guadalajara. It is estimated that business agreements in the amount of 8,000 million pesos will be generated, which will essentially show their effect in 2021. Not bad at all.
Banks are disguised and credit bureaus are at risk
Fitch, headed by Carlos Fiorillo, issued a note regarding the impact of the banking support programs. Essentially, the quality of assets is being disguised but, additionally, credit bureaus are also immersed in this distortion. By not reflecting reality and showing those who are in default, future decision making to acquire new credits will be riskier.