The labor scenario in 2020 is a powder keg due to salary increases of 9%, strikes and inflation

Note published on December 13 in El Sol de México, Análisis [Analysis] Section by Alberto Aguilar
Read original source

One of the challenges to bring down inflation is that of the expectations generated by the phenomenon, which can further accelerate the rise in prices via relabeling.

And we have that, unfortunately, inflation, which could end the year at 8% is not a process that could be brought down soon, especially with the consequences around the world due to the disruption of production chains.

Here, the internal crisis has already been reflected in the jump in the prices of many food items and energy. The problem in specific items, such as aviation, has also triggered the rates.

Additionally, the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador encouraged a raise of 22% to the minimum wage, which has already started to cause pressure in contract negotiations.

This other element will be added to the moment being lived in the labor arena, which is already difficult due to the agreements in the USMCA, particularly since many obstacles still persist in regard to the compliance with the workers’ free, secret and direct vote of 50% plus one, stated in the agreement.

The US committee of experts keeps a focused supervision on this process, which is not going well, despite the good will shown by the STPS, led by Luisa María Alcalde. Not even the dossier of the GM Silao plant has progressed.

Experts agree that the labor outlook for 2022 is a powder keg. It is not ruled out that there will be many strikes, particularly due to the floor already being established by the increase to the minimum wage, which is out of context, given the inflation.

Oscar de la Vega, of the De la Vega y Martínez Rojas Firm, estimates that labor demands for the re-tabulation of salaries will be based on an 8% inflation, plus one percentage point.

Demands for at least 9% will be made, at a time in which many sectors have not even overcome the blow dealt by the pandemic, such as tourism or the automotive industry, including auto parts, affected by the lack of chips. In this sense, he agrees that the labor horizon looks tangled.

Also add the tugging by union groups, clearly evident in regard to GM, headed by Francisco Garza and, in the North, in the maquila industry companies located at cities like Reynosa and Ciudad Juarez with characters like Susana Prieto or CTM’s Juan Villafuerte.

Hence, a complicated labor scenario and salary negotiations that will complicate the control of inflation even further.


The year has also been difficult for the stock market. The seventh and eighth issuers to withdraw from the BMV [Mexican Stock Exchange], led by José-Oriol Bosch are already lining up; in this case Elementia, led by de Francisco del Valle and Fortaleza, led by Fernando Kuri. Given the low stock prices, the conditions are there for collecting  the shares and the degradation of internal confidence is not helping either. In this sense, many companies could decide to place in the US as a better option. The case of Roberto Alcántara’s VivaAerobus was known about not too long ago. I also tell you, in anticipation, that a similar problem could be replicated with the Click payment facilitator, led by Adolfo Babatz, which is evaluating going public. Both are in the crosshairs for 2022.


I was telling you about the concern in Canacitra, led by Enoch Castellanos, due to local taxes affecting food and beverages. In particular, David Monreal’s Zacatecas intended to tax soft drinks. There is a great need for resources. In the end, the initiative was aborted. It would have a serious social impact, in addition to being out of line with the federal directive. In fact, Adán Augusto López’s Segob blew its top. Even so, payroll tax was raised by 2%.